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Title
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A method for assessing the risk of sea
transportation: Numerical examples for the Oslofjord
Håvard J. Thevik, Eirik Sørgård, and Tim
Fowler
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Summary
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The objective of the work described in this paper
is to establish a model for risk assessment of sea transportation
in the inner part of the Oslofjord. Inherent in ship transportation
is the risk of marine accidents. Such accidents can have severe
consequences. In order to address the need for an assessment tool
for the risk associated with marine accidents, a “Marine
Accident Risk Calculation System” (MARCS) has been developed
by Det Norske Veritas (DNV). MARCS uses a statistical approach to
calculate the frequency and consequence of marine accidents. The
MARCS predictions for accident frequencies in the Oslofjord have
been compared with historical data. The historical data is based on
recordings from the Norwegian DAMA database. This database was
developed and maintained by the Norwegian Directorate of Shipping
and Navigation, the Norwegian Coast Administration, and DNV. The
DAMA database contains a complete recording of all incidents
related to marine accidents in Norwegian waters in the period from
1991 to 1996. In total, 63 incidents were reported for the inner
part of the Oslofjord in this period that corresponds to the
accident types accounted for in MARCS. It is found that MARCS
qualitatively, and largely quantitatively, is able to reproduce
historical accident frequencies. In conclusion, the results show
that MARCS is well suited to analyse risk associated with sea
transport close to the coast and in narrow waters such as the
Oslofjord.
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