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DOCUMENT
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Title
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SYSTEM SIMULATION: A RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL FOR
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND1
John R. Harrald, Thomas A.
Mazzuchi, Jason Merrick, John Spahn, and Rene Van Dorp The George
Washington University Washington, D.C.
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Summary
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The Prince
William Sound (PWS) risk assessment was a joint project of Det
Norske Veritas (DNV), Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), and
the George Washington University (GWU). The technique of system
simulation developed by GWU was one of three risk analysis
methodologies used in the PWS risk assessment. The system
simulation methodology is based on the premises that risk is a
dynamic property of a system, and that the judgment of experts who
have a deep understanding of the system can be used to compensate
for incomplete data. The system simulation was used to assess the
baseline or current risk in the PWS oil transportation system and
to evaluate the effectiveness of potential risk reduction measures.
The PWS risk assessment found that current system safeguards
effectively address significant system risks, but are not optimal.
The dynamic interactions modeled in the simulation demonstrate that
actions that reduce risk in one part of the system often increase
risk in other parts. The ability to identify and to evaluate these
risk tradeoffs is an essential element of risk management. The PWS
risk assessment identified specific interventions that could
increase the level of safety of oil transportation in Prince
William Sound.
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1. Innlegg
