Magnus S. Eide1, Øyvind Endresen, Odd Willy Brude3), Per Olaf Brett Det Norske Veritas, Veritasveien 1, N-1322 Høvik, Norway.
Øyvind Breivik, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Postboks 43 Blindern, N-0313 Oslo, Norway
Ingrid H. Ellingsen, SINTEF, N-7465 Trondheim, Norway
Kjell Røang, Christian Mikkelsen Research AS, Postboks 6031, N-5892 Bergen, Norway
Jarle Hauge, Norwegian Coastal Administration, Postboks 466, N-5501 Haugesund, Norway

To enhance the risk reducing effect of shore based ship monitoring, this paper suggests a new, dynamical approach for risk based ship traffic prioritisation. The philosophy behind this new approach is that risk can be reduced by directing efforts towards ships and areas that have been identified as high priority (high risk), prior to a potential accident. The proposed model separates itself from previous ship prioritisation models by drawing on available dynamic data and by focusing on the ship’s surroundings. The model estimates the potential environmental risk of drift grounding accidents for oil tankers in real time and in forecast mode, combining the probability of grounding with oil spill impact on the coastline. Our results show that the potential dynamic risk introduced by an oil tanker sailing along the North Norwegian coast depends significantly on wind and ocean currents as well as tug position and cargo oil type.

The results indicate that the risk model is well suited for real time prioritising of oil tankers and coastal segments, and effectively separates low risk and high risk situations. This enables dynamic risk based positioning of tugs, using both real-time and projected risk, for effective support in case of a drifting ship situation.